2024-03-29T15:02:42Z
https://nagoya.repo.nii.ac.jp/oai
oai:nagoya.repo.nii.ac.jp:02005356
2023-04-06T07:17:17Z
659:853:854:1680587935846
The Impact of Economic Crisis on Regional Employment : A Causal Forest Approach
経済危機が雇用に与える影響 : causal forestを用いた試論
安達, 有祐
ADACHI, Yusuke
小川, 光
OGAWA, Hikaru
津布久, 将史
TSUBUKU, Masafumi
Economic shocks
employment
regions
industries
Random Forest
This paper analyzes the impacts of economic shocks on Japanese regional employment using causal forest algorithms, and our data-drive findings are compared with those estimated under the standard OLS estimation. Our results are as follows. The largest declines in employment growth during the recessionary period associated with the crisis are in industries and regions where employment grew before the crisis, and in industries that have a large share of employment in the region. These results differ from the standard OLS results, which show that the negative impact of shocks is greater in regions with higher unemployment rates. In addition, testing the robustness with respect to outliers, which are samples that could be arbitrarily removed, we show that the results obtained by causal forests are robust, but those of OLS are not.
departmental bulletin paper
名古屋大学大学院経済学研究科
Graduate School of Economics Nagoya University
2023-03
application/pdf
経済科学
4
70
31
43
The Economic Science
0022-9725
2434-5741
https://nagoya.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/2005356/files/03_ADACHI-Yusuke.pdf
jpn