@phdthesis{oai:nagoya.repo.nii.ac.jp:00005369,
 author = {加藤, 博和 and Kato, Hirokazu},
 month = {Mar},
 note = {In recent years, because a sense of crisis over global environmental issues internationally is rapidly becoming higher, it is more necessary to take environmental influences into consideration in the restructuring of whole human activities. Especially, it is recognized that 'global warming' is one of the most serious of global environmental issues. The main cause is greenhouse gas emissions, half of which is CO2 by fossil fuel consumption. Most of the transport sector depends on consumption of fossil fue1, and efforts to reduce this dependency have not succeeded so far. CO2 generation from transport tends to increase in both developed and developing countries, and in future, further increase is forecast. Improvement of transport facilities is executed for higher mobility corresponding with changes in demand for transport. It brings benefits to its users and neighbors, but whether global environmental load increase or not  is different in each case. In the construction period, much environmental load is generated. After beginning to use the new facilities, the environmental load from transport activities changes. These changes are a)’congestion relief effect’ and b)’ demand inducement effect'. The size of each effect decides whether total environmental load increases or decreases. Furthermore, life time of a transport facility is relatively long, and its effects and influences continue for a long time once it is completed. Therefore, long-term control of environmental load generation by appropriate establishment of a policy of transport facilities improvement becomes possible. Considering such characteristics, the 'Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)' concept as an evaluation method of global environmental load has been proposed in existing researches. On the other hand, with measuring environmental impacts of transport facilities improvement, partial objectives, for example, estimation of environmental load from infrastructure construction and forecasting of local environmental change by transport network reformation were studied. However, measurement methods for total influences generated by transport facilities improvement have not been developed. Consequently, in present conditions, it is impossible to judge whether a transport improvement policy results in decrease of global environmental  load with transport. In this research, the aim is to develop a quantitative evaluation method of influences on global environmental load change when urban transport facilities are improved. Incidentally, in this research, only CO2 is used in calculating global environmental loads. This thesis consists of an earlier part with conceptual presentation and a later part with empirical analysis. First, as a basic concept for an evaluation indicator of global environmental load, 'life cycle environmental load’ is defined. This includes l)‘Global environmental load from transport facilities' which consists of  a) that from transport facilities supply (infrastructure construction, management, maintenance, and demolition)､and b)that  from transport activities(infrastructure use). 2)Evaluation of cumulative environmental load during the whole life cycle or the transport facility. In this, the life cycle of a transport facility means the whole period from its construction to its demolition. 3)Evaluation of ‘embodied environmental load' implying the environmental load from production and conveyance of materials and machines appropriated for construction. This concept is an application of the existing LCA method to the evaluation of  total influences due to improvement of transport facilities, and it is a similar system to cost benefit analysis. Furthermore, ‘ Life cycle environmental load’ concept is extended from a single transport facility to the whole urban transport system. Then, in the measuring method, the important factors deciding urban transport states are found to be urban growth, consequent increase of transport demand, and motorization. In this research, this phenomenon is called 'urban dynamism’.  As a model expressing this mechanism and measuring long-term environmental influences on urban transport investment, a basic system of “Environmental Life-cycle Assessment for Sustainable Transport Improvement of a City (ELASTIC)model” is conceptualized. A main obstacle against this formulation is data constraint. Therefore, in this research, adoption of macro-modeling approach which omits locational relationship in a city makes it simpler to estimate required parameter under data constraint. The basic framework of this model is a 'dynamic macro-economic model’, in which demand functions of transport activities and evaluation functions of environmental load are added. In this ¨ELASTIC model”, a city is thought of as a human so that urban transport  improvement policy is compared to eating habits, and increase of global environmental load is compared to geriatric diseases. Next, in the empirical analysis part, the 'life cycle environmental load' concept is applied to evaluate concrete examples of alternative types of single transport facility and alternative policies of investment in the whole urban transport system. Concerning single transport facilities, environmental load from facility supply is measured using a ‘combined-method' of summing-up method and input-output table analysis for evaluation of embodied environmental load in reference to the results of existing LCA researches. In addition, the environmental load from transport activities is estimated based on the design elements of the facilities and forecasted changes of activity level with time. Using this method, comparison of life cycle environmental load for several alternative road types, namely, construction of a tunnel, grade separation in an urban area. and road provision and improvement in a rural area, is analysed. Results of this analysis show that transport facilities improvement in an urban area tends to reduce environmental load because a congestion relief effect is generated. Conversely, that in a rural area tends to rise because of a demand inducement effect and relatively bigger environmental load from transport facilities supply. In empirical analysis of the global environmental load from urban transport systems, clarifying the mechanism of urban dynamism and the resulting change of transport activities beforehand is emphasized. The most important part of this is the progress of motorization, because the main part of the increase in environmental load generation from transport activities comes from vehicle transport. The detailed analysis of motorization and the influences on it of transport facilities improvement is covered by time series data from big Japanese cities which have experienced rapid urban dynamism in the past.                From the above analysis, it is made clear that the progress of motorization is composed of a)increment of car ownership level, b)increment of car use rate, c)infiltration of a car-dependent life style, d)fitting of urban spatial structure to car use. Basically ,these are due to increasing affordability of cars because of increase in income level. However, while vehicle speed is slow in the dense cities where public transport is dominant, in other cities the ‘motorization acceleration' phenomenon happens because more car use and urban spatial structure change progress interactively. It is indicated that public transport improvement and land use regulation policies in a city restrains dependence on car use and reduces environmental load generation from transport activities･ On the basis of the results of the above empirical analysis, the¨ELASTIC model¨for policy analysis of a real city (Nagoya City, Japan)is formulated. In this model, exogenous variables are economic growth level, population increase rate, and transport investment level as a policy variable. The model composition is as follows; 1)Model for transport facilities supply and consequent environmental load: This model expresses the increment of transport facilities stock and environmental load from them. Embodied environmental load from facilities construction and quantity of transport facilities stock are estimated by the amount of transport facilities investment in each period. Furthermore, embodied environmental load from facilities maintenance is estimated by quantity of transport facilities stock･ 2)Model for car ownership level: Per capita car ownership as a basic indicator of motorization is expressed by income level, transport facilities level, and urban structure indicator. 3)Model for transport activity level:  Basic components describing transport activities, namely, trip production, choice of transport mode, and trip length are modeled for two classes of traveler, namely, car owners and non-owners. Combination of these models are then used for estimating total vehicle (or train)kilometer for each transport mode. 4)Model for environmental load from transport activity: Relief of congestion caused by road improvement reduces fuel consumption and environmental load generation. As a modeling of this effect, environmental load generation factor is expressed as a function of average vehicle travel speed which indicates congestion level. Using this empirical “ELASTIC mode1”, sensitivity analyses with various policies of road and railway investment and various pattern with economic level or population growth scenarios in a city are carried out. It is concluded that the developed “ELASTIC model” can satisfactory quantify the long-term effect of transport facilities on environmental load. It is also concluded that maintaining stable transport investment level in the motorization progress period can help reduce the environmental load since a bigger congestion relief effect is generated.  In this study, the concepts and methods for life cycle assessment of global environmental load change by transport facilities improvement are developed consistently. Using the developed methodology, as well as ex post facto analysis of big cities in developed countries, suggestions for urban transport investment policies in developing countries where motorization it is expected to rapidly progress in the future are given. Further, in combination with evaluation of other influences, for example, financial analysis, cost benefit analysis, local environmental influence assessment, etc., global environmental impact can be taken into consideration within the transport facilities planning and design process., 名古屋大学博士学位論文 学位の種類:博士(工学) (課程) 学位授与年月日:平成9年3月25日},
 school = {名古屋大学, Nagoya University},
 title = {都市交通システムの地球環境負荷に関するライフサイクル評価手法},
 year = {1997}
}